Hm Treasury
Mr Speaker, on my first day as Chancellor of the Exchequer, I asked Treasury officials to assess the state of public spending.
That work is now complete, and today I am presenting it to this House.
In this statement, I will do three things.
First, I will expose the scale and the seriousness of what has been uncovered.
Second, I will lay out the immediate action we are taking to deal with the inheritance.
And third, I will set out our longer-term plans to fix the foundations of our economy.
Let me take each of these in turn.
First, the inheritance.
Before the election, I said that we would face the worst inheritance since the Second World War.
Taxes at a seventy year high.
Debt through the roof.
An economy only just coming out of recession.
Mr Speaker, I knew all those things.
I was honest about them during the campaign.
And the difficult choices it meant.
The British people knew them too.
That is why they voted for change.
But upon my arrival at the Treasury three weeks ago, it became clear that there were things I did not know.
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That is why we are today publishing a detailed audit of the real spending situation, a copy of which will be laid in the House of Commons Library.
I want to take the opportunity to thank Treasury officials for all their work in producing this document.
Let me explain what it has uncovered.
Mr Speaker, the government published its plans for day to day departmental spending at the Spring Budget in March.
But when I arrived at the Treasury
on the very first day
I was alerted by officials that this was not how much the previous government expected to spend this year.
Not even close.
In fact, the total pressure on these budgets across a range of areas was an additional 35bn.
Once you account for the slippage in budgets you usually see over a year
and the reserve of 9bn to deal with genuinely unexpected events
it means, Mr Speaker, that I have inherited a projected overspend of 22bn.
A 22bn hole in the public finances now not in the future.
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If left unaddressed it would have meant a 25% increase in the governments financing needs this year, pushing gilt issuance further into record highs outside of the pandemic.
So I will today set out the urgent work I have already done to reduce that pressure on the public finances by 5.5bn this year and over 8bn next year.
And let me be clear: I am not talking about bills for future years they signed up to but did not include, like the compensation for infected blood.
I am not talking about the state of public services in the future, like the crisis in our prisons, which they have left for us to fix.
I am talking about the money they were spending this year and had no ability to pay for
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Resulting in the position that we have now inherited:
The reserve, spent three times over only three months into the financial year.
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Mr Speaker, the scale of this overspend is not sustainable.
Not to act is simply not an option.
We have already seen official ONS figures this month showing borrowing is higher this year than the OBR expected. [Redacted political content]
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There are very clear instances of specific budgets that were overspent
and unfunded promises that were made
but that, crucially, the OBR were not aware of for their March forecast.
I will now take each of those instances in turn.
First, the asylum system.
The forecast for the number of asylum seekers has risen dramatically since the last Spending Review, and costs for asylum support have risen sevenfold in the last three years.
But instead of reflecting those costs in the Home Office budget for this year, the previous government covered up the true extent of the crisis and its spending implications.
The document I am publishing today reveals a projected overspend on the asylum system, including their failed Rwanda plan, for this year alone of more than 6.4bn.
That was unfunded and undisclosed.
Next, in the wake of the pandemic, demand for rail services fell.
But instead of developing a proper plan to adjust for this new reality, the government handed out cash to rail companies to make up for passenger shortfalls, but failed to budget for this adequately.
Because of that, and because of industrial action, there is now an overspend of 2.9bn in the transport budget.
That was unfunded and undisclosed.
Mr Speaker, since 2022, the government with the support of this whole House has rightly provided military assistance to Ukraine in response to the Russian invasion.
The spending audit has found that there was not enough money set aside in the reserve to fund all these costs.
We will continue to honour these commitments in full.
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On top of these new pressures, since 2021, inflation was above the Bank of Englands target for 33 months in a row hitting 11% at its peak.
But the government has not held a Spending Review since 2021.
That means they never fully reflected the impact of inflation in departmental budgets.
This had a direct impact on budgets for public sector pay.
When the last Spending Review was conducted, it was assumed that pay awards would be 2% this year.
Ordinarily, the government is expected to give evidence to the Pay Review Bodies on affordability.
But extraordinarily, this year, the previous government provided no guidance on what could or could not be afforded to the Pay Review Bodies.
This is almost unheard of.
But that is exactly what they did.
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I will not repeat their mistakes.
Where the previous government provided no transparency to the public, and no certainty for public services
we will be open about the decisions which are needed
and the steps we are taking.
That begins with accepting in full the recommendations of the independent Pay Review Bodies, and the details of these awards are being published today.
That is the right decision for the people who work in and most importantly the people who use our public services
giving hardworking staff the pay rise they deserve
while ensuring we can recruit and retain the people we need.
It should not have taken this long to come to these decisions.
And I do not want us to be in this position again.
So, I will consider options to reform the timetable for responding to the Pay Review Bodies in the future.
This decision is in the best interests of our economy too.
The last government presided over the worst set of strikes in a generation.
This caused chaos and misery for the British public.
And it wreaked havoc on the public finances.
Industrial action in the NHS alone cost the taxpayer 1.7bn last year.
That is why I am pleased to announce today that the Government and the BMA have agreed an offer to the Junior Doctors, on which my RHF the Health Secretary will set out further details.
And let me pay tribute today to my RHF, whose leadership on this issue has paved the way to ending a dispute which has caused waiting lists to spiral, operations to be delayed and agony for patients to be prolonged.
Today marks the start of a new relationship between the government and staff working in our National Health Service and the whole country will welcome that.
Mr Speaker, where the previous government ducked the difficult decisions, I am taking action.
Because knowing what they did about the state of the public finances, they continued to make unfunded commitment after commitment that they knew they could not afford.
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Leaving us with an overspend of 22bn this year.
Where they presided over recklessness, I will bring responsibility.
I will take immediate action.
Let me set this out in detail.
First, pay.
I have today set out our decision to meet the recommendation of the Pay Review Bodies.
Because the previous government failed to prepare for these recommendations in departmental budgets, they come at an additional cost of 9bn this year.
So, the first difficult choice I am making is to ask all departments to find savings to absorb as much of this as possible
totalling at least 3bn.
To support departments as they do this, I will work with them to find savings ahead of the Autumn budget
including through measures to stop all non-essential spending, such as on consultancy and government communications.
And I am asking departments to find 2% savings in their back-office costs.
I will now deal with a series of commitments made by the previous government which they did not fund.
Because if we cannot afford it, we cannot do it.
First, [Redacted political content] the former Prime Minister announced the introduction of a new qualification: the Advanced British Standard.
That is a commitment costing nearly 200m next year, rising to billions in future years.
Mr Speaker, this was supposed to be the Prime Ministers legacy.
But it turns out, he didnt put aside a single penny to pay for it.
So we will not go ahead with that