Ministry Of Defence
Thirty-five years ago, Margaret Thatcher gave a short speech here in Lancaster House.
She spoke of her optimism about the changes taking place between East and West. Barely two weeks later the Berlin Wall fell.
It was the dawn of a new era. Existential threats were banished. And a new global feel good factor spread to Defence.
This was the age of the peace dividend. The notion that while our defences should be maximised at times of tension they could be minimised in times of peace.
Conflict didnt disappear of course. But with no great power menacing the continent, peace gave the impression of being just around the corner.
Yet, not everyone got the memo. In fact our adversaries were mobilising.
The belligerent autocratic state was making a comeback - havin got away with the illegal annexation of Crimea in 2014, Putin launched his brutal invasion of Ukraine eight years later.
And as Russia continues its illegal campaign in Ukraine, China is assessing whether the West loses its patience.
Today, Russia and China have been joined by new nuclear, and soon to be nuclear, powers.
North Korea promising to expand its own nuclear arsenal.
And then there is Iran, whose enriched uranium is up to 83.7%, a level at which there is no civilian application.
Back in the days of the Cold War there remained a sense that we were dealing with rational actors.
But these new powers are far more unstable, and irrational.
Can we really assume the strategy of Mutually Assured Destruction that stopped wars in the past will stop them in future, when applied to the Iranian Revolutionary Guard or North Korea?
I am afraid we cannot.
Particularly since there is now another new worrying consideration: Our adversaries are now more connected with each other.
For example, we have seen how Iranian proxies are causing havoc from Israel to the Red Sea.
That Russia has what the two countries describe as a no limits partnership with China - with whom they conduct regular joint exercises.
Meanwhile, Putin is relying on Iranian drones and North Korean ballistic missiles to fuel his illegal bombardment in Ukraine.
With friends like these, the world is becoming more dangerous and has done in recent years.
But the other threats that plagued the start of the 21st century havent gone away.
The spectre of terrorism and threats from non-state actors, as October 7 showed, still haunts the civilised world.
Put it all together, and these combined threats risk tearing apart the rules-based international order established to keep the peace after the Second World War.
Todays world then, is sadly far more dangerous.
With the UN reporting that we are facing the highest number of violent conflicts since the Second World War.
Now some argue these threats are not existential to the UK.
And yet, what happens elsewhere, quickly happens here.
In the past few years weve seen terror attacks on the streets of London, attempted assassinations in Salisbury, theft of Intellectual Property, attempted interference in our political processes, a cost-of-living crisis, brought to you by Putin, thats hurting families here at home.
And now, our trade. 90 per cent of which comes by sea, is the target of terrorists.
Proving that not only do our adversaries have the intent to target us but they have a widening array of weapons with which to wreak havoc.
In our online world our adversaries dont need to jump in a tank board a sub or strap into a fighter jet to hurt us.
Cyber warfare simply means hacking into our networks and watching the economic carnage unfold.
Last year, almost a third of businesses in the UK suffered a cyber breach or attack. And the total cost to the UK economy runs into billions.
We know significant numbers of these attacks come from Russia and China where they are also developing satellite killing technology, capable of degrading us from space.
Even mass migration can be cynically used against us as a weapon of war, as Poland, Norway, and Finland have been experiencing.
In other words, nation states plus non-state actors with greater connections between them plus more creative weapons all adds up to more trouble for the world.
Over the last decade this government has made great strides to turn the Defence tanker around.
The refreshes of the Integrated Review and Defence Command Paper have been instrumental in ensuring Britain is defended in this more dangerous world.
Weve uplifted our defence spending investing billions into modernising our Armed Forces and bringing in a raft of next generation capabilities, from new aircraft carriers to F35s; from new drones to Dreadnought submarines; from better trained troops; to the creation of a national cyber force.
And when the world needed us, we have risen to the moment.
Giving Ukraine our unwavering support and galvanising others to their cause, including with our biggest ever funding package, announced last week.
Taking action, we work to stamp out the global ambitions of Daesh.
Weve acted at the forefront of global responses to maintain regional stability after October 7th by sending a Royal Navy Task Group, a company of Royal Marines, surveillance planes and lifesaving aid to Gaza.
And taking a lead role within global forces to protect freedom of navigation in the Red Sea.
Not only that but weve strengthened Britains place in the world with expanded partnerships from the Gulf to the Indo-Pacific.
Were playing a major part in stirring the West into a renewed commitment to defence, using our 2014 NATO summit in Newport to bring Alliance nations together to stop the rot, by committing to spending 2 per cent of GDP on Defence.
Today, for the very first time this government is spending more than 50bn a year on Defence in cash terms, more than ever before.
And we have made the critical decision to set out our aspiration to reach 2.5% of GDP spent on defence.
And as we stabilise and grow the economy, we will continue to strive to reach it as soon as possible.
But now is the time for all allied and democratic nations across the world to do the same.
And ensure their defence spending is growing.
Because, as discussed, the era of the peace dividend is over.
In five years time we could be looking at multiple theatres involving Russia, China, Iran and North Korea.
Ask yourselves looking at todays conflicts across the world - is it more likely that the number grows, or reduces?
I suspect we all know the answer its likely to grow. So, 2024 must mark an inflexion point.
For Ukraine, this will be a year when the fate of their nation may be decided.
For the world, this will be the greatest democratic year in history with nearly half of the worlds population going to the polls.
And for the UK it must also be a moment to decide the future of our national defences. The choice is stark.
Some people, especially on the left, have a tendency to talk Britain down.
They believe Britain can no longer have the power to influence world events.
That we should somehow shrink into ourselves and ignore whats happening beyond our shores.
I passionately believe these unpatriotic, Britain belittling doom-mongers are simply wrong.
Their way would lead us sailing blindly into an age of autocracy. So we must make a different choice.
And the history of our great island nation shows us the way.
Britain has often accomplished the seemingly impossible before. Our history is littered with moments when we faced down the threat and triumphed.
But looking ahead, we are in a new era and we must be prepared to deter our enemies, lead our allies, and defend our nation.
In terms of deterrence, its about the UK gaining a strategic advantage over our enemies.
The foundation of that advantage is, of course, our nuclear enterprise.
At a time of mounting nuclear danger, our continuous at sea deterrent provides the ultimate protection.
And thats why we are spending around 31bn to bring in next generation Dreadnought submarines and upgrade our deterrent.
In a more contested world, we need to bring that same goal of deterrence to our conventional forces so we have made modernisation a critical priority.
Taking the long-term capability decisions we need to transform our Armed Forces into a formidable deterrent.
Enabling them to maintain the UKs strategic advantage and empowering them to be able to deliver the outcomes we need in multiple theatres at once.
The growing success of that work was powerfully shown last week when, in less than 24 hours, the UK was able to both take action to defend ourselves against the Houthis and uplift our support to Ukraine to new record levels.
If Putin thought wed be distracted by the events in the Middle East then last week, because of the long-term decisions this government has taken, his hopes were surely dashed.
In a complex world, no nation can afford to go it alone, so we must continue strengthening our alliances so the world knows they cannot be broken.
Defence is in many ways the cornerstone of our relations across the world.
Our world leading Armed Forces, cutting-edge industrial base and willingness to support our allies is the reason why Britain is the partner of choice for so many.
And among our partnerships, NATO remains pre-eminent. 75 years after its foundation, today NATO is bigger than ever.
But the challenges are bigger too.
T