Defence Science Technology Laboratory
Global heating and related climate changes are already happening. They would continue even if greenhouse gas emissions ended today. We cannot predict the speed of these changes, so we must ensure operational capability remains effective. Defence must also keep (or increase) operational advantage and freedom of manoeuvre. Defence must adapt.
If we understand defences current level of resilience to climate change, we can develop the right adaptations.
The people and equipment that make up defence capability must prepare to fight and win in all climatic zones. And in extreme weather conditions too - against rivals more familiar with operating in the local area.
Change in threat:
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changes in global and regional freedom of access and manoeuvre
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change in national and international acceptance of defences impact on climate change
Change in mission demand:
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increase in need for Humanitarian Assistance and Disaster Relief (HADR) and Military Aid to the Civil Authority (MACA)
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physical or geopolitical changes may require operations in new environments
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increase in need for peacekeeping operations
Change in operating conditions:
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ability to switch rapidly between increasing climatic extremes
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ability to operate in prolonged extreme weather and temperature events
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increase in risk of degradation of equipment and personnel
Issues
Climate change has a wide range of impacts on military equipment.
Extreme weather (such as high winds) can:
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affect aircraft (especially at take-off or landing)
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cause damage to communications and infrastructure for storing equipment
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cause sea and river erosion affecting navigation above and below water
Increased temperatures can:
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affect aircraft performance (by reducing lift, lowering load limits, reducing range and increasing fuel usage)
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put stress on land vehicles and equipment (can increase the need for cooling of equipment and vehicles)
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melt sea ice causing marine engines to be damaged from ingesting melting ice pack
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degrade maritime navigation and Intelligence, Surveillance, Target Acquisition and Reconnaissance (ISTAR)
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limit marine engine performance
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increase degradation of most materials and equipment which increases support demand due to higher failure rates in equipment requiring maintenance (increased temperature and extreme weather can do this)
Dust and sand storms from desertification can:
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compromise vision in air and land vehicles
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damage land and air vehicle engines and equipment (increasing maintenance burden, and affect equipment operations including optical sensors, lasers, EHF, radio and communications)
Increased salinity (salt content of water) can also affect submarine and counter submarine operations by affecting acoustic transmissions.
If we increase the need for HADR and MACA operations - as these are not the operations driving capability development, they cannot shape procurement - this can result in the use of capabilities not optimised for these missions. And while military equipment and personnel are engaged in HADR and MACA, theyre not available for their primary tasks of warfighting and deterrence.
Solutions
In a world where harsher climates and extreme temperatures are universal, we must adapt equipment so it operates anywhere. And across an increasing range of operational conditions too.
The UK does already operate in extreme temperatures. Rather than having assets to specialise in specific climatic zones though, future equipment must be flexible enough to switch between cold and heat (with little time to adapt or acclimatise).
Platform or vehicle options:
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new capabilities (such as icebreakers) to navigate passage in the high north
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retrofit or enhance current capabilities
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more temperature tolerant equipment (including greater cooling power for hotter environments)
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electrified maritime and air platform fleets with associated large-scale recharging facilities
Military equipment options (needs to be flexible to ensure rapid adaptation between different climate extremes and could employ the following):
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open architectures to take advantage of rapid advances in technology or changes in environment
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modular system of systems to tailor equipment for missions
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operating and computing at the edge where theres a limited amount of front-end process and decision-making to overcome loss of connectivity from extreme weather
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increased use of robotic and autonomous systems to reduce the risk to personnel from hazardous weather and extreme temperature
Maintenance and storage options (there are a number of ways to reduce the time equipment is out of service from climate effects):
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predictive and conditions-based maintenance to reduce failures including artificial intelligence (AI) and digital twin technology
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forward spares production and repair using advanced manufacturing technology
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making repairs simpler and training people with the skills needed
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focus on robustness to extreme weather and temperature during acquisition of equipment and consumables
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climate-proof storage to extend life and limit damage from temperature, moisture, light and dust
Spotlight on digital twins
A digital twin is a virtual model of a real world entity, system or process used to predict performance.It includes a live 2-way data flow into and out of its twin in the physical world. Digital twins mimic (in real-time) their real world counterpart in all aspects. And they can be used to experiment and iterate potential interventions to understand their likely impact.
Digital twins can:
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predict and reduce energy use, emissions and waste
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extend object or system life
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